熱伝導材料（TIM） 2024-2034年：技術、市場、予測

This report offers a detailed technical analysis of thermal interface materials for EV batteries, EV power electronics, data centers, 5G, ADAS, and consumer electronics (TIMs for all mentioned above and die-attach materials for some applications). It provides 10-year forecasts in terms of area, mass, revenue, and unit price of TIMs. The report covers TIM fillers, costs, thermal conductivities, high-performance TIMs, commercial applications, historical acquisitions/partnerships, and emerging trends.

 

A Thermal Interface Material (TIM) is a material used to improve heat transfer between two surfaces, typically a heat source (such as a computer processor) and a heat sink (such as a metal heatsink or other cooling system). TIMs are used everywhere ranging from batteries in electrical vehicles on the road, data center server boards to your personal smart phones and laptops, 5G base stations and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) electronics.

 

With all these emerging technologies and fast-growing markets, the TIM market is expecting a double-digit CAGR between 2024 and 2034, representing significant opportunities. IDTechEx's report "Thermal Interface Materials: Technologies, Markets and Forecasts 2024-2034" offers a comprehensive and granular analysis of the opportunities for TIMs and the future trend. The purpose of a TIM is to fill the small gaps and imperfections between the two surfaces, reducing the thermal resistance and increasing the heat transfer efficiency.

 

TIMs come in various forms, including pastes, pads, liquid metals, films, and many others. A TIM typical consists of a highly conductive filler in a polymer matrix. The properties of TIMs (e.g., thermal conductivity, cost, viscosity, etc) are largely dependent on the filler materials, particle sizes, loading percentage, particle geometries and many others. A few typical filler materials include alumina, alumina hydroxide (ATH), AlN, boron nitrite (BN), ZnO and MgO. However, depending on the costs, regional regulations, difficulty of filler treatment, and abrasiveness and many other factors, the preferred filler varies across industry and application. This TIM report includes a technical and cost analysis of the filler materials, as well as a benchmark comparison of the filler materials by cost (US$/kg), thermal conductivity (W/mK), toxicity, coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE), dielectric strength, electric conductivity, density, and a few other factors.

 

TIMs have been widely adopted in many industries such as consumer electronics, electric vehicle batteries, electric vehicle power electronics, data centers, 5G, and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). However, with the rapid growth of many of these sectors and increasing power density, TIMs are facing greater challenges in balancing costs, thermal conductivities, viscosities, dielectric strength, and other physical properties. The specific requirements vary across industries. For instance, TIMs in EV batteries are highly cost-sensitive; TIMs for 5G in the mmWave spectrum ideally need to have both high thermal conductivity and excellent electromagnetic absorbent properties; and TIMs in high-performance applications such as data centers are moving towards higher thermal conductivity. Meanwhile, there are key design transitions in the target applications, such as EV batteries becoming more integrated, data centers trending towards higher powers driven by AI, the increasing adoption of autonomous driving and challenges in thermal management for ADAS sensors, mmWave in 5G, as well as the transition from Si IGBT to SiC MOSFET for EV power electronics and the higher junction temperature. Trends like these, among others, are expected to drive a revolution in the TIM market.

 

This report from IDTechEx considers the forms, filler materials, and matrix materials of TIM2s along with die-attach materials (TIM1s), benchmarks commercial products, details recent high-performance materials and their commercial successes, and identifies the market trends based on the collaboration and acquisitions of leading TIM suppliers. It also analyzes current TIM applications in fast-growing industries, along with the key drivers and requirements in each of these areas such as electric vehicle batteries, electric vehicle power electronics, data centers, 5G infrastructure, consumer electronics (smartphones, tablets, and laptops), EMI shielding, and ADAS sensor components (e.g., LiDAR, cameras, etc). In addition, 10-year granular area (m²), mass (kg), revenue (US$), and TIM unit price (US$) forecasts were given for EV batteries, data centers, consumer electronics, ADAS electronics, and 5G infrastructure.

 

Electric vehicle (EV) industry is currently the largest target application for thermal interface materials (TIMs) with EV batteries dominating the TIM adoption. With the increasing popularity of EVs, the market demand has been increasing rapidly and this trend is expected to continue for the upcoming decade. Battery technology, as one of the core technologies in EVs is also seeing rapid changes. With the increasing demand for long mileage, there is a trend towards higher energy density, reduced weight, faster charging, and fire safety, all of which require effective thermal management and materials to support. Within EV batteries, the property of TIM highly depends on cell formats, thermal management strategies, pack designs, and costs of TIMs. This report conducts extensive research into EV battery designs, covering the transition from modular designs to cell-to-pack designs, CATL Qilin's latest CTP3.0 using inter-cell liquid cooling chambers and analyzes its impacts on energy density and TIM forms. 10-year TIM area (m²), mass (kg), and revenue (US$) forecasts are provided across multiple vehicle segments (cars, buses, trucks, vans, and two-wheelers) and by TIM form (thermally conductive adhesives, gap fillers, and gap pads).

 

In terms of EV power electronics, the mega trend is the transition from Si IGBT to SiC MOSFETs. This transition leads to a higher junction temperature (175+ or even 200+ for SiC MOSFET compared with up to 150 for Si IGBT). This trend imposes a rising demand for high-performance TIMs and die-attach materials. Typical TIM2s for EV power electronics as of early 2024 have a thermal conductivity around 3.5W/mK, but this is expected to increase over time. Similarly, die-attach materials, due to more stringent requirements, are also seeing transitions from traditional solder alloys to Ag sintering, and this trend will potentially extend to Cu sintering to reduce the cost in the future.

 

Driven by AI, cloud computing, telecommunication and crypto mining, data centers become more powerful and densely packed, leading to a rising difficulty in thermal management. If the heat is not dissipated properly, it can lead to decreased performance, shortened lifespan, and even hardware failure, thereby causing significant technical issues. This report conducts extensive research into data center components, analyzing TIMs used in commercially available server boards, line cards, switches/supervisors, and power supplies with a number of case studies including the latest AI GPUs from Nvidia. 10-year TIM area (m²), mass (kg), and revenue (US$) forecasts are provided across key data center components (processors, chipsets, switches, and power supplies) with analysis of the TIM requirements for data center applications with the increasing thermal design power and upcoming transition to direct-to-chip or even immersion cooling.

 

With the greater demand for autonomous driving and smart interiors (e.g., driver monitoring and occupant monitoring, etc), advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are becoming increasingly popular. In ADAS, various electronic components such as sensors, cameras, and processors are used to collect and process data, and make decisions. These components can generate heat during operation, and with the continuous densification of designs, the heat dissipation will become a bigger challenge. If the heat is not properly managed, it can cause damage to the components, thereby affecting sensors' performance. This report provides a detailed analysis of TIM requirements for ADAS LiDAR, cameras, radar, and computers with commercial use-cases and 10-year granular TIM area (m2), mass (kg), and revenue (US$) forecasts.

 

EMI shielding plays a critical role across many industries ranging from ADAS radar, 5G antenna, to smartphones. One of the exciting segments is 5G. Compared with 4G, 5G uses higher frequencies and shorter wavelengths. The adoption of mmWave and increased frequency shrinks the sizes of antenna and associated electronics, leading to greater heat dissipation challenges. Further to this, a large number of 5G base stations need to be deployed locally because of the inherent short transmission lengths. 5G presents more EMI challenges since the effectiveness of EMI mitigation measures declines with higher frequencies because smaller wavelengths allow energy to escape through gaps in shields. To mitigate this issue, this report analyzes several EMI TIMs that can provide both EMI shielding and high thermal conductivities. In contrast to traditional board-level shields (BLSs), with a layer of TIM inside and outside the shield, a single layer of TIM and EMI absorber can be used directly on the chip to make contact with the heat sink, which not only improves overall thermal performance but also reduces manufacturing complexity.

 

 

The growing density of infrastructure and power demands in 5G, coupled with technological shifts, creates a substantial market for Thermal Interface Materials (TIMs). This report examines thermal and EMI challenges within 5G infrastructure, presenting current design solutions through teardowns or use cases and outlining future design progressions. It includes updated databases and detailed market forecasts for station size and frequency. Despite nearing the end of its hype cycle, 5G continues to offer significant market opportunities and growth prospects for thermal management solutions.

 

Thermal Interface Material (TIM) trends and analysis:

o Solder alloys

o Silver sintering

o Copper sintering

o Electric vehicle power electronics

o Electric vehicle batteries

o EMI shielding

o Data centers

o ADAS electronics

o 5G infrastructure

o Consumer electronics

 

 

 

This report forms part of IDTechEx's wider portfolio of thermal management research. Further trends, technical information and 10-year forecasts can be found in the following reports:

 

Thermal Management for Electric Vehicles

Thermal Management for EV Power Electronics

Thermal Management for Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems

Thermal Management for Data Centers

Thermal Management for 5G

 

More information can be found at www.IDTechEx.com/Research/Thermal

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