導電性インク市場2019-2029年：成長予測、テクノロジー、主要企業

This report provides the most comprehensive and authoritative view of the conductive inks and paste market, giving detailed ten-year market forecasts segmented by application and material type. The market forecasts are given in tonnage and value at the ink level.

 

It includes critical reviews of all the competing conductive inks and paste technologies including firing-type pastes, sintering pastes, PTFs, laser-cut or photo-patterned pastes, nanoparticles, stretchable inks, in-mould inks, copper, copper/silver alloys, nanocarbons, and more. Here, we outline the latest performance levels/progress, technology challenges, key suppliers, existing and emerging target market, and forecasts where appropriate.

 

It also provides a detailed assessment of more than 27 application sectors. Here, we analyse the market needs/requirements, discuss the business dynamics, market leadership and technology change trends, competing solutions, latest product/prototype launches, key players and market forecasts in tonnes and value.

 

The markets covered include photovoltaics, power electronics, EMI shielding, in-mould electronics (automotive, home appliance, etc.), electronic textile and wearable electronics, 3D antennas and conformal printing, flexible hybrid electronics (FHE), touch screen edge electrodes, automotive (defoggers, seat occupancy sensors, seat heaters, etc.), 3D printed electronics, multi-layer ceramic capacitors (MLCC), ITO replacement (hybrid, direct printing, etc), printed piezoresistive, capacitive and bio sensors, PCB (DIY/hobbyist, professional, seed-and-plate), RFID (HF, UHF), printed TFT and memory, OLED and large-area LED lighting, flexible e-readers and reflective displays, large-area heaters (battery, plant, seat, etc.), conductive pens, digitizers and more.

 

In the report we also cover more than 130 companies. For most, we provide insights based on primary intelligence obtained through interviews, visits, conference exhibition interactions, personal communications, and so on. For more than 50 we provide full interview-based company profiles including a detailed SWOT analysis and IDTechEx Index. These provide valuable insight on company positioning, strategy, opportunities, and challenges.

 

This report is based upon years of research. In the past five years alone, our analysts have interviewed more than 120 industry players, visited numerous users/ suppliers across the world, attended more than 25 relevant conferences/exhibitions globally, and worked with many industry players to help them with their strategy towards this market. For example, in the last four years alone we visited around 35 tradeshows in Japan, USA, Taiwan, Korea, Germany, UK and so on to update our report. Prior to this, our analysts played an active role in commercializing conductive pastes, particularly in the photovoltaic industry.

 

In parallel to this, IDTechEx has organised the leading global conferences and tradeshows on printed electronics for the past decade in Asia, Europe and USA. These shows bring together the entire value chain on printed electronics, including all the conductive ink suppliers, printers, and end users. This has given us unrivalled access to the players and the latest market intelligence.

Photovoltaics (PV): This industry had dramatically grown in 2016 and 2017, showing very high double-digit growth rates. The growth has now slowed, especially as demand in China, which had been brought forward by the expected FiT reduction, fell. However, the growth is still positive and healthy.

 

The change in growth rate is accompanied with a change in market character. In the boom years suppliers of pastes were struggling to keep up with them. Now that the overall market is expanding at a slower pace we are back to the usual business condition of spirited fight over existing market share.

 

In 2018, the 100GW/year barrier was breached. Therefore, the market is irreplaceably significant for paste and powder markers. The risk of overreliance therefore is high. The industry also remains concerned that slow annual growth rates might translate into peak silver consumptions if the trend to decrease silver content per wafer continues without plateau. The competitive pressures on downward price remains strong squeezing margins. The technology innovations also often remain of an incremental nature, bringing up short-lived market advantages.

 

The industry has long been in search of the next big thing, hoping to create one or a combination of markets that can rival the size of the photovoltaic market. As a result, companies have sought to seed and create a diverse array of new markets, each exploiting a different feature of the wonderfully adaptive conductive ink technology, e.g., forming and stretching, sintering, conformal coating, fine feature printing, and so on. The new market creation process has now resulted in a diverse portfolio of applications. Our report analyses all these emerging markets in detail.

 

In-mold electronics (IME): After years of development, the production learning curve is still challenging, and the concept-to-mass production flow is not yet routine and well-established. Despite this, a wave of products is hitting the market. Recent examples are curved defrosters for automotive LED lighting, wearable patches, etc. Many more are in the pipeline especially in the automotive sector. Our assessment is that market is not far of its inflection point (estimated as 2021-2022). Indeed, at IME-enabled product level, we estimate that the market will exceed $240M by 2024/5. This translates into opportunities for paste markets. Some suppliers have engaged strongly with this trend, putting themselves in leading positions in terms of customer relationships and feedback, product qualification advances, and product performance and customization ability. There is still however room for innovation in particular focusing on higher formability, easier and kinder curing, and better match with all the other stack materials.

 

Power Electronics: New power semiconductor technologies such as SiC and GaN are enabling smaller and more integrated devices capable of handling higher power density levels. With these the bottleneck against higher temperature operation is not the semiconductor device but the packaging material.

 

A critical packaging material is the die (and to a less extend substrate) attach. The push towards higher temperatures has, in some cases, already pushed solder, the incumbent, to or beyond its performance limit, creating the need for an alternative.

 

Sintered metal pastes have emerged as a compelling proposition. They increase the thermal conductivity and the melting temperature, allowing devices to reliability operate at higher temperatures. This technology is already in commercial use after some seven years of development and its markets are poised to rapidly expand. The number of paste makers offering some type of sintering solution is rapidly increasing.

 

The development targets are to achieve rapid low (or zero) pressure sintering of ever larger surface areas and to narrow the significant price differential versus SAC solder. Ag is dominant but promising Cu alternatives have also emerged with friendlier sintering conditions. Various morphologies are emerging to reduce and later eliminate pressure sintering without scarifying curing time. New product form factor beyond just screen or stencil printing are emerging, making this technology more of a drop-in replacement. Machines makers are now offering turn-key solutions, integrating the pick-and-place, the drying, the pressure sintering units.

 

The market for sintering power in power electronics will grow. Interestingly, sintered paste will find new opportunities outside power electronics. Candidates include high-power RF amplifiers, high-power LEDs, and so on.

 

EMI Shielding: Spray-on inks are targeting package-level EMI shielding. Here, they hope to displace sputtering, the incumbent, which benefits from sunk CapEx. They offer low-capex production in atmospheric conditions and better conformal coverage. Jetted inks are also being proposed for in-package EMI isolation between individual dies in a multi-die package especially for high-frequency devices.

 

Some suppliers propose micron-sized, prioritising cost and maturity. Flat flakes offer higher conductivity if aligned well. Others develop nano or even particle-free inks, offering to offer the thinnest solution with the best adhesion and shielding properties. Most offer a hybrid solution, siting somewhere between full nano to full micro and full spherical to full flake type. Others are going further, taking steps to make it as easy as possible to adopt the product. Some position as possible full solution providers, integrating their inks with curing units to minimise customers' learning curve and adoption barriers. Some go even further proposition mechanisms to fine-tune layer thickness post-deposition to locally boost performance in EMI hotspots.

 

Flexible Hybrid Electronics (FHE): This is becoming a viable and achievable proposition (a) because ultrathin and flexible packaged complex ICs with high I/O pin count are becoming available, and (b) because ultralow temperature solder compatible with low-temperature substrates are being introduced. This trend will require fine-feature printing to metallize the circuit pattern on the flexible substrate whilst maintaining compatibility with the I/O pin spacing of complex IC packages. Fine printed Ag bumps may also be used in low-T die attach.

 

Other conformal printing: There is a significant installed base of production already, demonstrating that the technology could be commercialized in the face of entrenched incumbents such MIDs. It took years to develop appropriate low-temperature inks (120C) with good adhesion and conductivity. This trend continues as new inks emerge, offering even lower temperature curing, making more substrate materials compatible with aerosol metallization.

 

Stretchable e-textile conductive inks: Stretchable conductive inks have been in the commercialization mode, mainly technology push, for multiple years now. The number of suppliers has increased over the past years and the first products have already landed in the market. The value chain is in much better shape today. The market however remains diverse and fragmented, and silver consumption per item sold low. As such, the emphasis is now on strategic market segmentation and development to build and sustain a product pipeline. Technology wise, this is supported by the ability to customize inks performance on a use-case basis. In their marketing process, companies are also exploring opportunities beyond consumer products, focusing on safety clothing, automotive applications, and so on.

 

Touch screen edge electronics: In recent years this market has been shaped by the perennial trend to narrow the bezel which had resulted in hybrid approaches (photo-patterned and laser-cut pastes) to achieving narrow linewidths. This market will remain highly cost competitive, pushing suppliers towards aggressively low price points to keep market shares and to fight off sputtering.

 

Touch screens: Directly printed metal mesh has recently accelerated its technological progress, demonstrating even <1um lines. Despite this, there is some way to go before it becomes a leading market in this crowded field. In the meantime, hybrid solutions (emboss then fill with paste/ink) will continue their stop-start commercial progress various applications whilst manufacturers contemplate whether to invest in large format machines or not.

 

Automotive Electronics: Suppliers already sell pastes into window demisters, occupancy sensors, seat heaters, airbag deployers, and so on. Market is now expanding to include touch screens, In-Mold Electronics, transparent heaters, die attach materials, and others. This makes engagement with automotive OEMs/value chain a high priority strategic imperative.

 

Furthermore, as the electronic content per vehicle goes up, the demand of LTCC substrates with fired conductive pastes expands. This trend will also push up the demand more multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC), which in some cases translates into demand for Cu (and Ni) powders. The autonomous sensor industry may also create demand in the laser packaging (e.g., high-T die attach).

 

PCB Printing: The installed base of desktop versions has expanded but utilization -thus material consumption - is low. The sales of final (vs beta) version of professional multilayer printers has also started. Professional desktop PCB printers are still in an early phase of market diffusion and are positioned an as internal R&D and prototyping tool. Print-seed-and-then-plate approach in the PCB industry is also largely on hold due to the lack of a clear cost or performance benefit compared to incumbent processes. However, Cu inks printed PI substrates are actively being pushed for the FPCB applications. This approach may offer a cost advantage when surface coverage is low (<20%).

 

Printed large-area piezoresistive, capacitive and biosensors are set to become one of the largest constituents of the greater printed electronics industry. Here, inks will be used as printed bus bars and interconnects. Despite technology improvements, printed transistor and memory will remain in search of applications. Special formulations for printed backplane interconnects on flexible e-readers and flexible displays will see small boom in the short- to medium-term particularly as e-readers transition towards large-area (wall-sized) and more flexible backplanes. Large-area LED arrays made with printing will slowly find their way into the market, but will remain a niche proposition. 3D printed electronics (3DPE) remains an innovation opportunity front for low-temperature inks compatible with a variety of substrates, although progress has been slow in offering dedicated 3DPE printers capable of metallization intra-layers and of providing a design-to-print turnkey solution to customers. There are numerous other applications which we consider in our report. Examples include heating, battery pack and plant heaters, frequency-selective windows, and many more.

 

Interestingly non-traditional technologies are also making an impact. Cu is also making progress. Here, several start-ups have demonstrated stable Cu inks that cure at low temperatures. However, they still need to demonstrate production beyond lab scale to overcome Cu's general credibility gap. In particle-free inks suppliers are more actively helping users overcome the learning curve. These inks may have a good match in on-textile printing, amongst others. Silver nanoparticle inks are finally, after many years of development, finding major commercial success. Their prospects look much brighter. That is why we have a dedicated chapter on silver nanoparticle in this version of the report.

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